人民长江Issue(9)：34-38,5.
气象数据不确定性对SWAT模型径流模拟影响
Influence of meteorological data uncertainty on runoff simulation by SWAT model
摘要
Abstract
Meteorological data is important input in SWAT models. Due to the limitations of meteorological observation tech-nology, the uncertainty of measured meteorological data exists, influencing the model simulation accuracy. As for the Yingluoxia Basin in the upper Heihe River, the random number following normal distribution are obtained by Monte Carlo sampling and the measured data is considered with the random error to express the data uncertainty, thus the influence of meteorological data un-certainty on the runoff simulation accuracy by SWAT model is studied. The analysis results show that, in general, the uncertainty of meteorological data input has a large influence on the model simulation result, in which, the uncertainty of precipitation data has the largest influence;meanwhile, it is discovered that if the self-error of meteorological data is considered in the simulation process, the runoff simulation accuracy can be improved effectively.关键词
SWAT模型/气象数据/不确定性/黑河流域Key words
SWAT model/meteorological data/uncertainty/Heihe River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
廖亚一,吕海深,李占玲..气象数据不确定性对SWAT模型径流模拟影响[J].人民长江,2014,(9):34-38,5.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划“973”项目(2013CBA01806) （2013CBA01806）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371049) （41371049）
