人民长江Issue(9)：43-47,5.
基于ARIMA模型的灌区地下水动态预报
Groundwater dynamic prediction in irrigation area based on ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the deteriorating environmental geological problems of Jinghuiqu irrigation area in Shaanxi Province in-duced by irrational underground water mining, we use stationary test, pure randomness test and BIC criteria to analyze and pre-treat the four factors affecting the underground water level, including precipitation, amount of irrigation water, amount of ground-water extraction and the water use ratio of channel to well, and then apply ARIMA model to forecast the tendency of four main factors in the future. Then the aquifer structure, hydrogeological parameters, boundary conditions and source-sink term of the irrigation area are generalized by Modflow visualization software. We simulate and identify the model using the level data of groundwater observation wells from 2001 to 2008, and further verify the model using the underground level from 2009 to 2010. The results show that the training results are in accordance with the actual values, and so is the predicted groundwater level.关键词
泾惠渠灌区/ARIMA模型/Visual MODFLOW/地下水预测Key words
Jinghuiqu irrigation district/ARIMA model/visual MODFLOW/groundwater prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李娜,周维博,董起广,李慧,马聪..基于ARIMA模型的灌区地下水动态预报[J].人民长江,2014,(9):43-47,5.基金项目
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAD29B0104) （2011BAD29B0104）
