摘要
Abstract
Based on measured data of Yuncheng Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2010,the changing trend of average temperature and precipita-tion in the future were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method combined with SDSM model under A2 and B2 scenarios. The results show that a)the average temperature presents a significant upward trend in the past 50 years,and after 1990,the average temperature is significantly higher than before,the precipitation presents decreasing trend in the past 50 years,but the changing trend is slow after 1990 and;b) under A2 and B2 scenarios in the future,the average temperature and precipitation present increasing trend,and the cumulative growth rate also shows the increasing trend at the same time. Compared with B2 scenarios,the rise of average temperature under A2 scenarios is bigger.关键词
未来情景/统计降尺度/SDSM模型/降水量/气温/气候变化/运城市Key words
future scenario/statistical downscaling/SDSM model/precipitation/temperature/climate change/Yuncheng City分类
天文与地球科学
