人民黄河Issue(1)：23-26,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2015.01.006
MIKE SHE水文模型参数的不确定性研究
Uncertainty Analysis of MIKE SHE Hydrologic Model Parameter
摘要
Abstract
In the process of building a model,some basin feature parameters are expressed inaccurately. It is an important way to construct model and estimate the uncertainty parameter for evaluating the uncertainty of the overall output. It used the runoff data of the Dongdaqiao Hydrological Station in Guishui River basin as the research object to estimate the uncertainty of runoff parameters. The results show that the parameters of larger uncertainty include PER,SP,C1,C2,C3 and the smaller parameters include KsF,KsI,IT and TD. More than 50%observations in calibration period fall into the corresponding uncertainty bounds,suggesting a similar level of model performance. The simula-tion results are better corresponded with the measured flow,but still need to be improved for higher accuracy.关键词
不确定性分析/蒙特卡洛法/GLUE法/MIKE SHE水文模型/径流模拟Key words
uncertainty analysis/Monte Carlo method/GLUE/MIKE SHE model/streamflow simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑震,张静,宫辉力..MIKE SHE水文模型参数的不确定性研究[J].人民黄河,2015,(1):23-26,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（41271004；40901026）；北京市科技新星项目（2010B046）。 （）
