人民黄河Issue(4)：10-13,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2015.04.003
气象干旱组合预测模型研究及其应用
Study on the Combined Forecast Model and Its Application of Meteorological Drought
摘要
Abstract
In order to enhance the prediction accuracy of the drought and overcome the shortcomings of a single forecasting model,this paper put forward the combined forecast model of meteorological drought as the object,based on the analysis of grey theory and genetic neural net-work. The combined forecast model was used to analyze the monthly rainfall data of Zhengzhou City from 1951 to 2012. Firstly using GM (1, 1)model to fit and forecast the extracted sequences. Secondly using genetic neural network to correct the fitted values of GM (1,1)model and get the trained network structure. Finally using the trained network structure to modify the forecasting value of GM (1,1)model. The re-sults show that for the different scales of catastrophic sequence,the accuracy of the combined forecast model is much higher than that of the GM (1,1)model and genetic neural network and the stability of the model has been enhanced.关键词
组合预测模型/GM(1,1)模型/遗传神经网络/干旱预测Key words
combined forecast model/GM (1,1)model/genetic neural network/drought prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
马建琴,毕静静,赵晓慎..气象干旱组合预测模型研究及其应用[J].人民黄河,2015,(4):10-13,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（41071025）；河南省教育厅自然科学研究基金资助项目（2009A170004）；河南省科技攻关基金资助项目（092102310197）。 （）
