人民黄河Issue(4)：69-72,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2015.04.017
基于灰色马尔可夫链的兰村泉域地下水位预测
Prediction of Groundwater Depth the Based on Grey Markvo Model
摘要
Abstract
Using the value of annual average underground water depth of S1 hole which in Lancun karst spring area,the values of rainfall and groundwater withdrawal as characteristic factor sequence and labor sequence respectively and combining with the grey system theory GM (1, N)model that forecasting underground water depth in Lancun karst spring area to simulate and modify the output residual error based on the Markov model. The results show that the fitting accuracy of the modified GM (1,3)model is 97. 41% that is 9. 62% higher than that of be-fore. And the predictive values which had been corrected were closer to the original date. The results of applying markov residual error cor-rection model for predicting the underground water depth (2011-2013)in Lancun karst spring area show that the predictive value of ground-water depth in the year of 2011,2012 and 2013 are 33. 24,32. 01 and 31. 12 m respectively,indicating that the groundwater table is rising slowly.关键词
地下水位埋深/GM(1,N)模型/马尔可夫模型/残差修正Key words
underground water depth/GM(1,N)model/Markov model/residual error correction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵丹,张天菊,臧红飞..基于灰色马尔可夫链的兰村泉域地下水位预测[J].人民黄河,2015,(4):69-72,4.基金项目
山西省自然科学基金资助项目（2012011033－2）；国家国际科技合作专项（2012DFA20770）；山西省水利科学技术研究项目（201303）；教育部博士点项目（20131402110008）。 （）
