人民珠江Issue(2)：93-95,3.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2014.02.031
基于突变分析的周期-ARMA 模型年降水量模拟
Based on mutational analysis cycle -ARMA model simulated annual precipitation
王东升1
作者信息
- 1. 云南省水文水资源局，云南 昆明 650106
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
M-K test method using the Pearl River Basin in Yunnan piece 1956 -2012 annual precipitation series,found that the series appeared in 2003 fewer mutations signals to the demarcation point mutations,removal of mutagenic,rebuild annual precipitation series. Were constructed original series and the new series of factors to consider mutant cycle -ARMA model and a linear combination of simu-lation results show that,considering the mutation factors,family cycle will occur some changes,but help to improve the model simula-tion accuracy.关键词
M-K 法/突变分析/重构系列/周期-ARMA 线性组合模型/年降水量/珠江流域Key words
M-K test method/Mutation analysis/Reconstruction Series/Cycle -ARMA model linear combination/Pearl River/Annu-al precipitation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王东升..基于突变分析的周期-ARMA 模型年降水量模拟[J].人民珠江,2014,(2):93-95,3.
