山东农业科学Issue(3)：144-147,153,5.DOI:10.14083/j.issn.1001-4942.2015.03.037
基于灰色系统理论的山东省农业产业结构优化研究
Optimization Research on Agricultural Industry Structure in Shandong Province Based on Gray System Theory
摘要
Abstract
Based on gray system theory , the correlation analysis of gross output of agriculture with the output of its 5 departments in Shandong Province were conducted taking the statistic data from 2003 to 2012 as research object, and their development in the next five years was predicted by GM (1,1) model.The predic-ted values were also analyzed by gray correlation analysis .The differences in correlation degree between pre-dicted and practiced values were analyzed , and also the causes .Finally, some proposals were put forward:the existing advantages of planting industry , animal husbandry and fishery industry should be constantly played ;the forestry development should be sped up by adjusting measures to local conditions ;the support to agricultur-al producer service industry should be strengthened .关键词
农业产业结构/灰色关联分析/GM(1,1)模型/山东省Key words
Agricultural industry structure/Gray correlation analysis/GM(1,1) modle/Shandong Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王妍,高强,金炜博..基于灰色系统理论的山东省农业产业结构优化研究[J].山东农业科学,2015,(3):144-147,153,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“农户分化背景下需求导向型农技推广机制研究”（批准号71273248）和山东省科技发展计划项目“山东省新农村建设关键性技术问题分析及机制模式研究”（编号2010GNC10957）资助。 （）
