水科学进展Issue(2)：151-160,10.DOI:10�14042/j�cnki�32�1309�2015�02�001
基于Budyko假设预测长江流域未来径流量变化
Prediction of future runoff change based on Budyko hypothesis in Yangtze River basin
摘要
Abstract
The calculation formula of annual runoff change was derived based on Budyko hypothesis. The spatial dis⁃tribution laws of annual mean potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and aridity index as well as sensitivity coeffi⁃cient over Yangtze River basin were analyzed. The outputs of global climate model BCC⁃CSM1⁃1under RCP4�5 emis⁃sion scenario was combined with LS⁃SVM statistical downscaling method to predict future temperature, precipitation and runoff changes in Yangtze River sub⁃basins. The observed hydrological data series of Wujiang and Hanjiang sub⁃basins were used to verify Budyko formula for estimating relative runoff change. The results show that precipitation is a dominant factor affecting runoff change;the relative runoff change values are different in each sub⁃basin and the lar⁃gest change value is around 10%; The relative runoff changes increase in the north bank and decrease in the south bank of Yangtze River basin during three future periods, i�e�, 2020s ( 2010—2039 ) , 2050s ( 2040—2069 ) and 2080s(2070—2099). The proposed methodology provides a new approach for runoff prediction in large scale basin and un⁃gauged region.关键词
气候变化/Budyko假设/水量平衡/径流预测/长江流域Key words
climate change/Budyko hypothesis/water budgets/runoff prediction/Yangtze River basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郭生练,郭家力,侯雨坤,熊立华,洪兴骏..基于Budyko假设预测长江流域未来径流量变化[J].水科学进展,2015,(2):151-160,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目 （）
