水力发电Issue(12)：12-15,4.
黄河源区河道冰封开河预报研究
Research on River Ice Forecast of Freeze-up and Break-up in Yellow River Source Area
摘要
Abstract
The study on forecast model of freeze-up and break-up date is significant important to understand the ice-slush in the source region of Yellow River and the impacts of climate changes on runoff process of Yellow River source area. Based on the hydrological data and weather data of source region of Yellow River, the main factors which affecting river ice-slush evolution are selected from various factors of thermal, hydraulic and river channel conditions, and then the dates of freeze-up and break-up are forecasted by using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. The forecast results are also compared. The ice forecast of freeze-up and break-up model is initially set up for the source region of Yellow River.关键词
预报/封河日期/开河日期/黄河源区/多元线性回归法/人工神经网络法Key words
forecast/date of freeze-up/date of break-up/source region of Yellow River/multiple linear regression method/artificial neural network method分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郝振纯,杜一衡,鞠琴,鲁承阳..黄河源区河道冰封开河预报研究[J].水力发电,2014,(12):12-15,4.基金项目
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951103)；国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830639)；2011年度高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110094110013)；国家重点实验室团队项目水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费资助(1069-50985512) （2010CB951103）
