水利水电科技进展Issue(4)：62-65,81,5.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.10067647.2014.04.013
黄河内蒙古段冰情预报系统的开发
Development and application analyze of forecasting system of ice conditions in Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
In order to forecast the date of ice-run, freeze-up and break-up, the forecasting system of ice conditions in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River has been designed and developed at every station based on the theory of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network theory. After selecting hydrological, meteorological and ice information the system has established a database, which can be called by applying ADO OLEDB technology. Additionally, the models of artificial neural network and multiple linear regression are used to realize the prediction, identification, and inspection. The overall results based on the data of 5 years from 2003-2004 to 2007-2008 employed in the prediction test, the qualified rate of the forecast results is respectively 80% and 67.7%. These, respectively reaches the first and third class forecasting scheme, indicating that the system can be applied to forecast the date of ice-run, freeze-up and break-up in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River.关键词
冰情预报系统/人工神经网络/多元线性回归/黄河内蒙古段Key words
forecasting system of ice condition/artificial neural network/multiple linear regression/Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
卞雪军,冀鸿兰,姜新华,高瑞忠..黄河内蒙古段冰情预报系统的开发[J].水利水电科技进展,2014,(4):62-65,81,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51369017,51369021) （51369017,51369021）
内蒙古水利厅科技计划(201007) （201007）
