水利水电科技进展Issue(5)：39-44,6.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.10067647.2014.05.008
耦合风险因素的大型地下厂房施工进度仿真分析
Construction scheduling simulation integrated with risks of large-scale underground powerhouse
摘要
Abstract
The construction of large-scale underground powerhouse is very complicated and easily affected by risk events. The current methods for analyzing the risks are based on the whole construction, while the risk events directly affect the stages of production. In order to consider the influence of risk events, the integrated risk-scheduling model of large-scale underground powerhouse was established. Further, the process of risk-driven construction scheduling and optimal controlling was introduced by combining the Monte-Carlo method. The results, based on engineering examples, show that that the proposed method can not only calculate the construction schedule of large-scale underground powerhouse with many risk factors, but also achieve in-depth analysis of the sensitivity of key risk factors to the construction schedule. The simulation results can provide effective support to the prevention of project risks and the control of construction schedule.关键词
水电站/地下厂房/施工进度仿真/风险控制/蒙特卡罗方法/敏感性分析Key words
hydropower station/underground powerhouse/construction schedule simulation/risk control/Monte-Carlo method/sensitivity analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李明超,段志龙..耦合风险因素的大型地下厂房施工进度仿真分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2014,(5):39-44,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51379006) （51379006）
国家创新研究群体科学基金(51021004) （51021004）
教育部新世纪优秀人才计划(NCET-12-0404) （NCET-12-0404）
