水利水电科技进展Issue(3)：30-33,4.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.10067647.2015.03.006
基于堰前最高水位最大熵分布的施工导流风险模拟方法
Construction diversion risk simulation method based on maximum entropy distribution of the highest water level in weir
摘要
Abstract
Based on maximum entropy distribution of the highest water level in weir, in this paper we present a simulation method of construction diversion risk that intuitively describes the diversion risk rate function of operational cofferdam and accurately assess construction diversion risk. In our method, the highest water level distribution density function is derived by using the distribution of flood peak and flood volume with the maximum entropy principle. Meanwhile, combining the discharge uncertainty of diversion buildings, the method stochastically simulates the highest water level sequence in weir. Then the method is employed to calculate diversion risk rate. The analysis shows that the simulated construction flood can well reflect the measured flood series. Moreover, the derived distribution density function of the highest water level in weir is reasonable, which can fully reflect true situation of recent measured flood in weir compared with traditional methods. On the premise of accuracy, this method improves risk calculation efficiency and applicability. Therefore, the method provides support for risk analysis and program decisions of construction diversion.关键词
围堰/施工导流/风险模拟/联合分布/最大熵分布Key words
weir/construction diversion/risk simulation/joint distribution/maximum entropy distribution分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
雷畅,胡志根,刘全..基于堰前最高水位最大熵分布的施工导流风险模拟方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2015,(3):30-33,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51279137,51379164) （51279137,51379164）
