水利信息化Issue(3)：41-44,4.
AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用
Application of AR Model for Flood Forecasting Correction in Baozhusi Reservoir
陈攀 1姜志群2
作者信息
- 1. 华电四川发电有限公司宝珠寺水力发电厂，四川 广元 628003
- 2. 南京江山同和水利水电技术有限公司，江苏 南京 210000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The watershed underlying surface is changed by human activities and it influences the precision of flood forecasting, so the real-time correction model is introduced to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. According to natural geographical, meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Baozhusi Reservoir, Xinanjiang model is used as real-time flood forecast model and time series AR model is used as real-time correction model. Using historical rainfall runoff data of 10 years, the parameters of the Xinanjiang model and real-time correction model were calibrated. And the model is verified by the 2 floods in recent years. The inspection result shows that the real-time correction can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting obviously.关键词
AR模型/洪水预报/实时校正/宝珠寺水库Key words
AR model/flood forecasting/real-time correction/Baozhusi Reservoir分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈攀,姜志群..AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用[J].水利信息化,2014,(3):41-44,4.
