水利学报Issue(5)：585-594,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2014.05.010
变化环境下不同等级干旱事件发生概率的计算方法--以无定河流域为例
A probability calculation method for different grade drought event under changing environment-Taking Wuding River basin as an example
摘要
Abstract
As a major natural disaster in China, drought is a restricting factor on the social and economic development. In the article, drought development process is simulated based on WHMLUCC model and Palmer drought severity index. A probability calculation method is proposed based on WHMLUCC model by the way of causes to inquire into the drought probability distribution on changing environment, and the drought event probability under different grade (such as non, light, medium, heavy and specially drought) is given, which could provide a scientific basis for drought forecasting and planning in the river basin. The results show that (1) the drought probability distribution shows a severe impact of climatic conditions on drought events, and LUCC has significant effects on drought on past climate condition, and LUCC has weak effects on present climate conditions;(2) comparing 5 scenarios, scenario 2 is beneficial to alleviate extreme drought, and the drought situation is relatively consistent on present climate condition, and (3) through cause analysis, it is known that the agricultural drought is closely related to climate change and the land use and land cover change in the Wuding River basin.关键词
WHMLUCC模型/Palmer干旱指数/非一致性/概率分布/成因分析Key words
WHMLUCC model/Palmer drought severity index/inconsistency/probability distribution/cause analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李析男,谢平,李彬彬,张波..变化环境下不同等级干旱事件发生概率的计算方法--以无定河流域为例[J].水利学报,2014,(5):585-594,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51179131，51190094）；广东省水利科技创新项目 （）
