水利学报Issue(5)：543-550,8.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20140928
设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法研究
Interval estimation method for design flood region composition
摘要
Abstract
The current methods for design flood region composition use some specific situations to summa⁃rize all possible combination of the flood at each sub-watershed,which leads to the results lacking in theo⁃retical basis,showing huge difference and hard to assess the errors. In this study,the joint probability den⁃sity function value of flood volume at each sub-watershed was adopted to measure its occurrence likelihood. Based on Copula function the normalized probability density function of flood volume at sub-watershed was derived. A new methodology for interval estimation of design flood region composition was proposed. The Ge⁃heyan reservoir located at Qingjiang basin was selected as a case study. It is demonstrated that the results of typical year method are not within the range of peak discharges estimated by the 95 % confidence inter⁃vals, and the results of equivalent frequency regional composition method are within those intervals which indicates that it has some rationality. The proposed method has strong statistical basis and can not only give both point and interval estimates of design flood region composition, but also evaluate the uncertainty of estimate quantitatively, which will provide a new approach for design flood region composition analysis and calculation.关键词
设计洪水/地区组成/区间估计/Copula函数/联合概率密度/清江流域Key words
design flood/region composition/interval estimation/Copula function/joint probability densi-ty/Qingjiang basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘章君,郭生练,李天元,胡瑶,李立平..设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2015,(5):543-550,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目 （）
