沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）Issue(6)：535-540,6.DOI:10.7688/j.issn.1674-0823.2014.06.10
人民币汇率波动与资本项目开放的关联性∗--基于2002-2013年季度数据的自适应预期模型
Correlation of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and openness of capital account items:based on adaptive expectation model according to quarterly data from 2002 to 2013
林小玲1
作者信息
- 1. 广东财经大学 金融学院，广州510320
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The reform of formation mechanism of Renminbi ( RMB ) exchange rate and the opening of capital account are of great significance to the internationalization of RMB. Based on international balance theory, the adaptive expectation model is established by using the quarterly data from 2002 to 2013, and the correlation of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the openness of capital account items is analyzed empirically. The result shows that the expected inflow of foreign capital has certain influence on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, while the influence of actual inflow of foreign capital on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not significant. Hence, along with the opening of capital account items, there is an expectation of RMB appreciation. Consequently, the expectation of RMB appreciation should be reduced, in order to maintain the stability of financial market in the process of RMB internationalization.关键词
人民币国际化/汇率波动/资本项目开放/三元悖论/国际收支说/自适应预期模型Key words
internationalization of RMB/fluctuation of exchange rate/openness of capital account items/ternary paradox/balance of payments theory/adaptive expectation model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
林小玲..人民币汇率波动与资本项目开放的关联性∗--基于2002-2013年季度数据的自适应预期模型[J].沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2014,(6):535-540,6.
