水资源保护Issue(5)：44-51,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.10046933.2014.05.008
考虑来水的东江流域用水量脉冲响应
Impulse response of water consumpt ion in Dongjiang River Basin considering inflow
摘要
Abstract
Abst rca t:The cointegration method was used to study the long-term relationships between total water consumption , industrial water consumption , and basin inflow over the past 30 years in the Dongjiang River Basin , in Guangdong Province .The vector autoregressive ( VAR ) model was established for impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of the relationship between industrial water consumption and inflow .The results show that the fluctuation of total water consumption in the Dongjiang River Basin is mainly due to the impact of the production water, which accounts for over 91%of the variance contribution rate for a long time .The impact of the total water consumption on the basin inflow presents a slightly negative response .The secondary industrial water consumption has a significant and durable effect on itself and all other industrial water consumption except for the primary industry water consumption , showing a significantly positive response , which is much greater than the mutual impact of water consumption of various industries .关键词
用水量/向量自回归模型/脉冲响应/方差分解/东江流域Key words
water consumption/vector autoregressive model/impulse response/variance decomposition/Dongjiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
何艳虎,陈晓宏,林凯荣,银磊,吴孝情..考虑来水的东江流域用水量脉冲响应[J].水资源保护,2014,(5):44-51,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（51210013，51379223）；水利部公益性行业科研专项 （）
