水资源保护Issue(6)：25-30,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.10046933.2014.06.005
承载指数与模糊识别评价许昌市水资源承载力
Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City based on carrying capacity index and fuzzy recogni tion theory
摘要
Abstract
The load index and carrying capacity index were used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City , with the year2011 used as the research base year .The fuzzy recognition model was established using six evaluation factors , including per capita water consumption, water consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP, unit area irrigation water consumption , per capita possession of water resources , the utilization efficiency of water resources , and water modulus , in order to calculate the water resources carrying capacity of the city during the period from 2002 to 2011 and analyze its change trends .On this basis , the water resources carrying capacities of Xuchang City in planning years 2020 and 2030 are predicted .The results show that the utilization of the water resources in Xuchang City is at a low level , and the water resources carrying capacity is appropriate on the whole . The water resources carrying capacity of Xuchang City has improved in recent years , but it has limited potential . The water resources will be overloaded in the extremely dry years ( P=95%) 2020 and 2030 .关键词
水资源承载力/负载指数/承载指数/模糊识别模型/许昌市Key words
water resources carrying capacity/load index/carrying capacity index/fuzzy recognition model/Xuchang City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
周念清,杨硕,朱勍..承载指数与模糊识别评价许昌市水资源承载力[J].水资源保护,2014,(6):25-30,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（41272249）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 （）
