生态环境学报Issue(12)：1883-1888,6.
基于SPEI的近50年青藏高原高寒草地自然保护区气候变化研究
Climate Changes in the Alpine Grassland Nature Reserves on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Recent 50 Years Based on SPEI Index
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data from the 16 meteorological stations around alpine grassland nature reserves (Kekexili, Qiangtang, Aerjinshan), we analyzed the regional temperature and precipitation trends from 1957─2011 using the daily precipitation data. The results showed that, in the past 55 years, the annual maximum, minimum and average temperature increased significantly. Mann-Kendall method showed the increasing trend exhibited a very significant level and the temperature growth rate was 0.71℃/10a. By comparing three methods including regional average method, linear regression method and exponential model for simulating precipitation change, we found that linear regression model had a higher value, exponential model had the largest variations and regional average method was lower than the linear regression model. Exponential model can well fit the relationship between precipitation and elevation. In general, there were large fluctuations of the annual average precipitation. Precipitation showed increasing trend in 1960s and decreasing trend in 1970s. Overall, there was a significant increasing trend based on Mann-Kendall analysis. Also, SPEI index which was integrated precipitation and temperature was used to analyze the drought dynamics and Kriging interpolation to reveal the spatial differences of three nature reserves. SPEI index showed that the climate in these nature reserves had a trend from dry to wet condition. The average annual precipitation, temperature and variations varied greatly among the three grassland nature reserves. The average annual temperature values for Kekexili, Qiangtang and Aerjinshan nature reserve are 1.9, 15.4 and 6.0℃ and precipitation values are 261, 141 and 107 mm/a. In summary, we analyzed the dynamics of climate change based on SPEI index, and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation. The results provide basis for nature reserve management.关键词
气温/降水/气候变化/自然保护区/高寒草地Key words
temperature/precipitation/climate change/nature reserves/alpine grassland分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘世梁,赵海迪,董世魁,安南南,苏旭坤,张翔..基于SPEI的近50年青藏高原高寒草地自然保护区气候变化研究[J].生态环境学报,2014,(12):1883-1888,6.基金项目
环保部环保公益项目（201209033）；国家十二五科技支撑项目 （）
