生态环境学报Issue(12)：1897-1904,8.
基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价
Evaluation of Drought Vulnerability in Southern China Based on Principal Component Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Drought vulnerability is the root of the formation of drought disaster. According to the principles of comprehensiveness, systematization and operability, and selecting five criterion layers, which included the vulnerability of water resources, economy, society, agriculture and the ability of drought prevention and resistance, the index evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability was established. By using principal component analysis to determine the weight of estimation indices, a drought vulnerability assessment model was constructed. Making use of the model, we got the drought vulnerability indices, threshold value and vulnerability zone in different provinces in southern China. These studies can provide the basic data and theoretical support for disaster prevention and reduction in South China. The results showed that: (1) through principal component analysis, we got four principal components. The first principal component mainly reflected the agricultural vulnerability and social vulnerability, and the variance contribution was 54.90%. The second principal component mainly reflected the water resources vulnerability and economical vulnerability, and the variance contribution was 23.64%. The proportions of the third and forth principal component were little, and mainly reflected the vulnerability of the ability of drought prevention and resistance. (2) The drought vulnerability evaluation model was constructed according to the variance contribution of four principal components. Then we got the comprehensive scores and ranking. The vulnerability of water resources in the sequence of descending were Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guangdong. The vulnerability of economy from high to low were Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guangdong. The vulnerability of society according to the order from high to low were Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guangdong. The vulnerability of agriculture according to the order from high to low were Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guangdong. The vulnerability of the ability of drought prevention and resistance according to the order from high to low were Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi, Chongqing and Guangdong. The comprehensive evaluation of drought vulnerability according to the order from high to low were Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guangdong. (3) The drought vulnerability indices tallied basically the normal distribution through the test of normality. According to the principle of normal distribution, the threshold value of classification of drought vulnerability was established. The drought vulnerability index with the value less than 0.3842 was defined as low risk, and that more than 1.0758 was defined as high risk, and other values between these two figures were defined as medium risk. Then the zoning map of drought vulnerability was obtained. Guangdong was located at low fragile zone of drought, Sichuan and Chongqing were located at moderate fragile zone of drought, and Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi were located at high fragile zone of drought.关键词
主成分分析/干旱/脆弱性/指标权重/中国南方Key words
principal component analysis/drought/vulnerability/index weight/Southern China分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王莺,王静,姚玉璧,王劲松..基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,(12):1897-1904,8.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430200；2013CB430206）；国家重大科学研究计划（2012CB955903）；中国清洁发展机制基金项目“面向适应的气候灾害风险评估与管理机制研究”；兰州干旱气象研究所博士科研启动项目 （）
