微型机与应用Issue(18)：73-75,3.
基于社交媒体用户评论和关注度的电影票房预测模型
Prediction model for film box office based on social media user comments and user attention
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, by studying the relationship between the film and the social media user behavior, we try to reveal the powder of word-of-mouth on the sales performance. Previous studies usually take user behavior as exogenous variables, but in this study, we review user behavior as an endogenous variable, which can affect the performance of sales. In the film industry, we analyze the relationship between the weekly box office and user comment number, rating, user focus, by panel data analysis, to reveal the influence of user behavior to movie box office performance, including the persuasive effect and awareness effect. Then, we analyze the influence of the box office to word-of-mouth, especially to user reviews and user focus. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of online word-of-mouth. We get some interesting conclusions, and we find that user rating is the only reflect of the box office, and itself does not significantly affect the box office, which means that high score does not necessarily let to high box office. Our research not only has higher theoretical contribution, but also has good practical significance.关键词
社交媒体/口碑/在线评论/用户关注度/电影票房/联立方程Key words
social media/word-of-mouth/online user reviews/user focus/film box office/simultaneous equations分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
周明升,韩冬梅..基于社交媒体用户评论和关注度的电影票房预测模型[J].微型机与应用,2014,(18):73-75,3.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41174007）；上海财经大学研究生教育创新计划项目 （）
