地震工程学报Issue(3)：682-687,704,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2014.03.0682
基于天体引潮力周期变化的 OLR 异常初探
Preliminary Study on the OLR Anomalies Based on the Cycle Process of Celestial Tide Forces:A Case Study on the Xinyuan MS6.6 Earthquake
摘要
Abstract
Earthquakes are definitely a mechanical phenomenon in which stress plays an important role. Many researchers have conducted statistical studies on the relationship between celestial tide forces (CTF)and earthquakes that prove that CTF may trigger earthquakes when the tectonic stress of the focal zone is at a critical stage. However, a method for identifying the critical stage point has not been determined thus far. Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR)signals have been observed prior to strong earthquakes in recent years. OLR data describe the radiation information from the top of the atmosphere, which is believed to reflect energy changes in the earth-atmos-phere system that occurs prior to earthquakes. OLR has characteristics of a large coverage range. Because earthquake-related anomaly information of OLR is extracted and applied to earthquake prediction, OLR anomalies are highly useful for areas that are out of the monitoring range of the current precursory seismic networks. Moreover, these anomalies are helpful for monitoring the stress stage of tectonics. In this study, we use National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)satellite data to observe OLR data provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)with 1°× 1°resolution and attempt to analyze the OLR anomalies before and after the Xinyuan Ms6.6 earthquake through the periodic variation effect of CTF. The earthquake occurred at a relativity high value of CTF, which it indicates that the CTF had a trigger effect on the earthquake. These results show that one month before the earthquake, no OLR anomalies were noted near the Xinyuan area. With the passage of time, the figures of spatio-temporal evolu-tion of OLR increase were noted as initial rising on June 25 → continued rising on June 26 →reaching the peak on June 27 → weakening from June 28 to 29 → earthquake occurring on June 30. This evolution reflects the following activities of the seismic fault under tectonic stress:micro breaking-rupture strengthening → accumulating energy (the decrease of stress)→ releasing ener-gy → shaking. These abnormal areas moved and expanded, and the earthquake occurred at north-east edge of the anomaly;the epicenter of this earthquake was not at the area of maximum abnor-mality. This result may be related to the geological structure and underground environment of the epicenter. These characteristics can provide some clues for determining future seismogenetic times and for tracking the locations of the epicenters. It is necessary to combine the study of CTF with that of OLR anomalies to explore the catastrophic events of seismic faults under tectonic stress and to reveal the complex processes of the energy accumulated and released during an earthquake. We should emphasize that only considering the factors of CTF and OLR anomalies according to relative statistical analysis is insufficient for launching a theoretical model to predict the time and magnitude of future earthquakes in a particular region. The current understanding of the genetic mechanism of the anomalies for earthquakes is not complete;therefore, additional case studies are needed.关键词
新疆新源 6.6 级地震/天体引潮力/OLR 异常Key words
Xinyuan MS6.6 earthquake/celestial tide forces/OLR anomaly分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尼鲁帕尔·买买吐孙,马未宇..基于天体引潮力周期变化的 OLR 异常初探[J].地震工程学报,2014,(3):682-687,704,7.基金项目
新疆地震科学基金课题(20130201) （20130201）
