地震工程学报Issue(1)：188-195,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2015.01.0188
河北平原地震带 b 值时空变化特征
Spatial and Temporal Variations of b-value in the Hebei Plain Seismic Belt
摘要
Abstract
b-value is the basic parameter of seismic risk analysis and seismic prediction,describing the distribution characteristics of the magnitude frequency relation of earthquakes of study region. Actually it is a symbol that measures the seismicity levels in a certain region,and it is widely used in seismic prediction research and seismic risk analysis both at home and abroad.In this article, several important aspects of the influence of b value statistical are discussed.We draw some con-clusions and hope to facilitate seismic prediction research.First of all,we studied the influence on the b-value by calculating seismic data integrity.Based on the observation bulletins and earthquake catalogues in the north China area,we analyzed temporal and spatial variations in seismic network monitoring capability.The effect of the b value curve to inspect network monitoring ability is dis-cussed,and the results prove that the effect with regional b value curve fitting to ensure the net-work monitoring ability is not reliable.As the Hebei plain seismic belt is one of main activity areas of the strong earthquakes that occurred at the third and fourth activity times in North China,and it has complicated geological structure with relatively dynamic moderate-strong earthquakes in history and modern times.So according to seismic data records in the last 44 years,based on the complete analysis of seismic sequence in the district,least square method is used to conduct time-scanning calculations of b-value,and the maximum likelihood method is used to conduct space-scanning calculations of b-value.During the scanning time,b-value is the mean b-value of research zone in every scanning window,its amplitude of variation is not quite great,with a variation range of 0.62~1.05.Space-scanning results indicate that the space distribution range of b-values basical-ly stays within 0.5~1.4.The low b-value zone is in the Tangshan-Qian’an section and the Chan-gping-Baodi section,consequently,b-value range 0.5~0.7,which indicates that the earth crust me-dium of this region is in a state of high horizontal stress accumulation and it there is a probability of a moderate strong earthquake in future.关键词
河北平原地震带/b 值/时间扫描/空间扫描/地震活动参数/地震样本量Key words
Hebei Plain seismic belt/b-value/time scanning/space scanning/seismicity parame-ter/seismic sample size分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王熠熙,张辉,刘双庆,曹井泉,李赫,陈嵩,高也..河北平原地震带 b 值时空变化特征[J].地震工程学报,2015,(1):188-195,8.基金项目
国家自然基金(41304048) （41304048）
地震科技星火计划(XH14002Y) （XH14002Y）
中国地震局定向跟踪任务(2014020306) （2014020306）
