水资源与水工程学报Issue(3)：53-56,4.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.03.11
皇甫川径流变化趋势及成因分析
Analysis of variation trend of runoff and driving factors in Huangfuchuan
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzed the observed runoff series of Huangfuchuan from 1954 to 2010 by using a variety of methods .According to the analysis of concentration degree method , the annual distribution of runoff is severely inhomogeneous and mainly concentrates from July to September .The runoff interannual variation is greater .It used the moving-average method and Spearman order correlativity check to prove that the trend of runoff was significantly decreased from 1954 to 2010 .Through joint application of se-quential cluster method and T test , it check out that runoff occurred mutation in 1983 and 1999 .It also respectively analyzed the impact of climate and human activities on variation trend and mutation of runoff . The results show that runoff reduction of Huangfuchuan is mainly affected by the rise of temperature and human activities;The time of runoff downward mutation is largely in line with that of temperature upward mutation in 1983 and 1999 .The influence of human activities on runoff changes is more and more .关键词
径流/年内变化/年际变化/突变分析/趋势分析Key words
runoff/annual variation/interannual variation/analysis of mutation/trend analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
邵广文,管仪庆,管章岑,沙志贵,张丹蓉..皇甫川径流变化趋势及成因分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,(3):53-56,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51209064、41102160）；国土资源部公益行业科研专项 （）
