水资源与水工程学报Issue(3)：161-164,4.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2014.03.33
时间序列模型在北京西山地区岩溶地下水位预测中的应用
Application of time series model in prediction of karst groundwater level in Xishan region of Beijing
摘要
Abstract
As a reserve area of water resources in Beijing , the dynamic change of groundwater level in Xishan region is of great significance to water resources management .Time series analysis is an effective tool to predict the dynamic change of groundwater level .In order to investigate the variation trend of groundwater level in Xishan region , the paper built the dynamic variation model of groundwater level by use of long monitoring data series of groundwater level in Xishan region of Beijing through fitting the trend component , periodic component and stochastic component of the series .The accuracy test of model indi-cated that fitting degree of model is good and the groundwater level in this region will appear the state of dynamic balance in the following five years .关键词
地下水位/动态变化/时间序列模型/地下水位预测Key words
groundwater level/dynamic change/time series model/prediction of karst groundwater分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孙雪,王小松,程莉蓉,李世君..时间序列模型在北京西山地区岩溶地下水位预测中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,(3):161-164,4.基金项目
北京岩溶水资源勘查评价工程项目 （）
