水资源与水工程学报Issue(1)：32-36,5.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.006
上海市日供水量与气象要素的相关性分析及预测模型的建立
Relativity analysis of daily water supply and meteorology factor and establishment of forecast model in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of daily water supply and meteorology in Shanghai from May 2010 to Decem-ber 2013,The paper analyzed the correlation between daily water supply and meteorological factors,and established forecast model of daily water supply.The results show that daily water supply generally pres-ents volatility distribution with one peak and one valley within one year.The daily water supply is the lar-gest in summer ( especially in July and August) and the smallest in winter ( especially in February) .The daily water supply exhibits significant holiday effect and has significant relativity with all the meteorologi-cal factors except precipitation., The correlativity of daily water supply with the meteorological factor in the summer half year is much higher than that in winter half year.The water supply is most closely corre-lated to temperature and has the highest correlation coefficient with the temperature of the day before. Meanwhile,the water supply has extremely sensitive response to the variation of temperature when it is greater than 20℃.The forecast model has high precision and can provide the scientific basis for the mete-orological services of urban water plan and reasonable dispatch.关键词
日供水量/气象要素/相关性/供水预测模型Key words
daily water supply/meteorological factor/correlation/forecast model of water supply分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
常远勇,谈建国,彭杰,顾问..上海市日供水量与气象要素的相关性分析及预测模型的建立[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,(1):32-36,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41275021）；上海市科委项目 （）
