水资源与水工程学报Issue(1)：58-62,5.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.01.011
时间序列分析在地下水位动态预测中的应用
Application of time series analysis in prediction of groundwater level dynamic
摘要
Abstract
Combined with SPSS statistical analysis software, time series analysis theory was applied to simulate and forecast the dynamic change of groundwater level in Helan.The result shows that the annual variation of groundwater level has no significant ascending or descending trend which means a little change of the condition of recharge, run-off and discharge of groundwater in the study area.Affected by irrigation and rainfall, the groundwater level mainly shows period variation of one year in the study area. It applied time series analysis method to forecast the dynamic change of groundwater level so as to know the trend and period of groundwater level.The method has simple computation and a high accuracy in short period, and needs less data.But the data should be continually and promptly updated in practical application.Its application is limited in certain degree and needs to be improved because of ignoring the hydraulic mechanism of groundwater flow system and the abrupt change of the future.关键词
地下水位/时间序列分析/地下水动态预测Key words
groundwater level/time series analysis/prediction of groundwater level dynamic分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨佳,钱会..时间序列分析在地下水位动态预测中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,(1):58-62,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
