水资源与水工程学报Issue(2)：64-67,4.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.12
基于随机水质模型的水功能区 COD 超标风险分析
Study on risk analysis of COD exceed standard in water function zone based on stochastic water quality model
摘要
Abstract
Because of existence of many uncertain factors in water environmental system ,the model estab-lished on the basis of the physical simple does not reflect the uncertainty of water quality and water quality change .In order to compensate the limitations of deterministic model of water quality ,the paper supposed oxygen coefficient , sedimentation coefficient and reaeration coefficient to obey the doubly truncated nor-mal distribution hypothesis in water quality model according to the theory of stochastic differential equa -tion ,and set up one-dimensional COD model considering random effect .The model was used to risk analy-sis of COD exceed the standard .The paper calculated the probability distribution of COD in different con-dition.The result showed that when the COD is 16, 17, 18 mg/L, the risk probability over standard is a-bout 0.3, 0.6,0.8.关键词
COD浓度/超标概率/随机水质模型/水功能区/风险分析Key words
COD/exceed the standard probability/stochastic water quality model/water function zone/risk analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张浩,季树凯,缪萍萍,孙凯艳,徐鹤..基于随机水质模型的水功能区 COD 超标风险分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,(2):64-67,4.基金项目
水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2014ZX07203－008）；国家国际科技合作专项资助 （）
