新疆农业科学Issue(2)：386-391,6.DOI:10.6048/j.issn.1001-4330.2015.02.033
基于新疆红枣产业景气分析的抗风险研究
Countermeasures of Anti -RisK Based on the Analysis of Xinjiang Jujube Industry Boom
摘要
Abstract
Objective] By 2013,Xinjiang jujube cultivation area ranked first in China, jujube industry has now become a pillar industry in some areas of Xinjiang and it has brought large amount of wealth to farm_ers.Meanwhile acreage explosive growth also raises concerns about whether there is overcapacity problem. Through the study of the red date industry cyclical fluctuations, the risk of Xinjiang red dates industry was re_searched and the source of prevention and control measures were explored.[Method] The time —difference correlation analytical method and the peak —valley corresponding method were applied to reveal the leading, coincidence, lagging indicators in the state of Xinjiang jujube industry development, and the development of current situation was analyzed and the future trend of the jujube industry in Xinjiang evaluated.[Result]The results show that Xinjiang jujube industry is in a state of steady development,however,there are many signals showing that industrial development is declining.[ Conclusion] To counter the causes of industry decline, some suggestions to optimize financial service system were raised to improve the product primary processing ca_pacity and perfect the market′s function of service, information, supervision and diversified development model to resist relevant risks in the industry.关键词
新疆红枣产/产业景气分析/时差相关法/景气指数Key words
Xinjiang jujube industry/industry boom analysis/time-difference correlation analytical/in_dustry climate index分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈文博,余国新,刘运超..基于新疆红枣产业景气分析的抗风险研究[J].新疆农业科学,2015,(2):386-391,6.基金项目
新疆自治区人文社科重点研究基地重点项目“新疆红枣产业评估与发展战略研究”(ZDJD2012A03)；新疆人文社会科学重点研究基地干旱区农村发展研究中心资助项目(XJEDLL030113Y03) （ZDJD2012A03）
