沙漠与绿洲气象Issue(6)：10-15,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2014.06.002
ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度在新疆及周边地区的预报效果检验
Prediction Effect Test of ECMWF Fine Grid Model for 2 Meters Temperature in Xinjiang and Its Surrounding Areas
摘要
Abstract
The forecast result of ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature from January to December 2013 in Xinjiang and its surrounding areas was evaluated. The result showed that ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature forecast was systematically lower, and the effect became worse with the increase of forecast period. Compared with the statistical tests of the absolute errors for temperature forecast in 72 h, 96~168 h and 192~240 h, the absolute errors and precision of forecast within 72 hours which have a certain reference value for actual temperature forecast outperform the other two leading time, followed by the forecasting precision within 96~168 h, and result for 192~240 h forecasting was left behind among the three predicted time. In addition, the accuracy of temperature prediction showed that the ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature was best in southern Xinjiang basin, northern Xinjiang basin for the second place, and the lowest in western Mongolia.关键词
ECMWF细网格/2 m温度/统计检验/系统误差/预报准确率Key words
ECMWF Fine Grid/2m temperature/statistical test/system error/forecast accuracy分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘春风,徐欢,宋雪明,李阿桥,张定文..ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度在新疆及周边地区的预报效果检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,(6):10-15,6.基金项目
新疆气象局科技项目（MS201415）。 （）
