西南林业大学学报Issue(3)：62-66,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1914.2014.03.012
加权马尔科夫链在福建省森林火灾预测中的应用研究
Application of Weighted Markov-Chain in Prediction of Forest Fire Disaster in Fujian Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data for 1987-2008 of the forest fire disaster in Fujian province,the prediction model was established by using the weighted Markov-chain prediction method,and applied the prediction model to predicting the number of the forest fire disaster in 2009.Then use this method to validate the data for 2007-2008. The result showed that the predicted result was highly consistent with the actual result,and the forecasting precision was more than 85%,which indicated that the weighted Markov-chain prediction method could be used in short-term prediction of the forest fire disaster.关键词
加权马尔科夫链/森林火灾/预测/应用/福建省Key words
weighted Markov-chain/forest fire disaster/forecast/application/Fujian Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
曹彦,何东进,洪伟,纪志荣,朱学平,游巍斌,连素兰..加权马尔科夫链在福建省森林火灾预测中的应用研究[J].西南林业大学学报,2014,(3):62-66,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（31370624、41301203、30870435）资助；教育部博士学科点专项基金项目（20103515110005、20133515120007）资助；福建农林大学林学院青年科学基金资助项目（6112C035F）资助。 （）
