运筹与管理Issue(1)：164-172,9.
工业化、城镇化进程中电力需求分析及预测
Analysis and Forecasting of Power Demand in lndustrialization, Urbanization Process
摘要
Abstract
With the development of the industrialization ,the urbanization process is accelerating .China’ s power demand will continue to rise .The power supply is an important guarantee for the steady development of our econ-omy.Therefore, a reasonable and accurate analysis of electricity demand and forecast is of important practical significance .This paper uses path analysis for screening the core of the electric power consumption demand based on this analysis of the current situation of China ’ s power demand .We analyze and forecast power demand based on single variables(ETS, ARIMA)and multivariate(scenario analysis)two dimensions based on model selection . The results show that GDP for every 1%increase in the electricity demand in 0 .5249%;the level of industriali-zation for every 1% increase in power demand has increased by 2.2146%, the level of urbanization for every 1%increase in power demand has increased by 1 .0076%.At the end of “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the con-sumption capacity of Chinese electric power reaches nearly 61425.96KW/h.By 2020,China electric power con-sumption will reach nearly 81410.10KW/h.关键词
预测科学/ETS/ARIMA/通径分析/电力需求Key words
scientific forecasting/ETS/ARIMA/path analysis/power demand分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
柴建,卢全莹,张钟毓,汪寿阳..工业化、城镇化进程中电力需求分析及预测[J].运筹与管理,2015,(1):164-172,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71103115）；中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目（2012M510580）；陕西省软科学研究计划项目（2012KRM95）；大学生创新创业训练计划项目 （）
