岩土工程学报Issue(6)：1079-1086,8.DOI:10.11779/CJGE201406013
基于证据理论的岩爆预测
Rockburst prediction based on evidence theory
摘要
Abstract
Rockburst is a dynamic breakage phenomenon existing in rock excavation in high in-situ stress zone, and its mechanism is complicated and the occurrence is influenced by many factors. It is almost impossible to make the prediction of its intensity through any single evaluating factor. Based on the idea of information fusion, a methodology is proposed for predicting the rockburst using the evidence theory, which can reflect the comprehensive influences of different factors. Three indices related to the occurrence condition of rockburst are taken into account as evidences in the proposed method, including the ratio of the maximum tangential stresses on cavern boundaries to the uniaxial compressive strength of rock, the ratio of the uniaxial compressive strength to the uniaxial tensile strength of rock and the elastic energy index of rock. The basic probability assignment functions are objectively constructed using the rough set theory. The predicted results of 12 practical cases show that the evidence theory method has relatively high accuracy. Finally, the model is applied to Cangling tunnel and the exploratory tunnel of Jinping II Hydropower Station. The results agree well with the field situations, which again illustrates the practicability of the proposed method.关键词
岩爆预测/信息融合/证据理论/粗糙集Key words
rockburst prediction/information fusion/evidence theory/rough set分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
贾义鹏,吕庆,尚岳全,支墨墨,杜丽丽..基于证据理论的岩爆预测[J].岩土工程学报,2014,(6):1079-1086,8.基金项目
浙江省重大科技专项和优先主题资助项目（2010C13029）；国家自然科学基金项目（41202216）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2014QNA4020）；浙江省教育厅科研项目 （）
