岩土力学Issue(4)：1211-1216,6.
基坑体系可靠度的条件概率计算方法
Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability
摘要
Abstract
There are many failure modes in the foundation pit engineering. Considering the correlation between failure modes, the range of system failure probability is large using the Breadth Border method or the narrow bounds method. The response surface is established by using the uniform test and nonparametric regression method. On this basis, in order to obtain the index of each failure mode, the random parameters generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are interpolated. Combined with the Pearson correlation coefficient, the correlation is tested between failure modes. Considering the correlation of multiple failure modes, the system reliability analysis method of foundation pit engineering based on conditional probability is put forward. As a typical example, a system failure probability of foundation pit is analyzed by using the conditional probability method. A case study shows that the method is simple and reliable in calculation, so as to provide a new way for the system reliability theory of foundation pit.关键词
基坑体系/失效概率/响应面/条件概率/Monte Carlo模拟/可靠度Key words
foundation pit system/failure probability/response surface/conditional probability/Monte Carlo simulation/reliability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
孙长宁,曹净,宋志刚,赵惠敏,桂跃..基坑体系可靠度的条件概率计算方法[J].岩土力学,2014,(4):1211-1216,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(No.51108217)；云南省科技厅应用基础研究计划项目(No.2011FZ047)。 （No.51108217）
