岩土力学Issue(10)：3000-3006,7.
基于FLAC3D模拟的大规模采空区破坏概率研究
Failure probability of goaf in large-scale based on simulation of FLAC3D
摘要
Abstract
Goaf stability is a long-standing problem. But almost all conclusions about goaf-integral-stability-evaluation are on a qualitative level, especially for the goaf in condition of large-scale and complex underground mines. If be quantified, it will, to a better extent, provide some protections for mine safety. For the problem of goaf stability in large-scale, the concept of “failure probability of goaf”based on numerical simulation is introduced to try to answer it. In the postprocessing of FLAC3D, several aspects of failure probability of goaf in the principal stress and shear failure criterion Fs and elastic energy are researched and analyzed respectively, in which the basic principles of probability of statistics are subjected to 95% confidence interval, and"Excel"plugin@Risk is used to statistically analyze the calculation results of grid in FLAC3D; then it makes the stability problem of goaf been quantified. Finally, a conclusion that the principal stresses and elastic energy of rock grid cells in large number follow Weibull distribution and Lognormal distribution has been drawn as well. At the same time, quantification not only solves the problem of the goaf stability, but also makes application of numerical simulation broadened.关键词
破坏概率/采空区/数值模拟/韦布尔分布/对数正态分布Key words
failure probability/goaf/numerical simulation/Weibull distribution/lognormal distribution分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
尚振华,唐绍辉,焦文宇,刘畅..基于FLAC3D模拟的大规模采空区破坏概率研究[J].岩土力学,2014,(10):3000-3006,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目(No.2012CB724207)。 （No.2012CB724207）
