中国电机工程学报Issue(4)：821-829,9.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.04.008
基于事故链及动态故障树的电网连锁故障风险评估模型
Risk Assessment Model of Power Grid Cascading Failures Based on Fault Chain and Dynamic Fault Tree
摘要
Abstract
The defects of present fault chain model of power grid cascading failures have been summarized and a defined method for forecasting cascading failures was presented based on fault chain model and fuzzyC-means. This paper also analyzed the importance of branches according to dynamic fault tree analysis. First, in order to reduce the workload and overcome the limitation of present means, this method selected the branches with the highest value of relevance as the next failure during fault chain forecasting. Then, the dynamic fault tree model of cascading failures was established due to the set of fault chains and the probability and risk were calculated. Finally, taken the IEEE39-bus system as an example, the rationality of the proposed method is verified by comparison with other means.关键词
连锁故障/动态故障树/事故链/概率风险计算/重要度评估Key words
cascading failures/dynamic fault tree/fault chain/risk probability assessment/importance analysis分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
丁明,肖遥,张晶晶,何剑..基于事故链及动态故障树的电网连锁故障风险评估模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,(4):821-829,9.基金项目
国家电网公司大电网重大专项资助项目课题(SGCC- MPLG024-2012)；安徽省自然科学基金项目(1408085ME100)；合肥工业大学博士专项科研资助基金项目(2012HGBZ0657)。Support by State Grid Corporation of China, Major Projects on Planning and Operation Control of Large Scale Grid (SGCC-MPLG001-2012) （SGCC- MPLG024-2012）
Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation (1408085ME100) （1408085ME100）
Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Hefei University of Technology (2012HGBZ0657) （2012HGBZ0657）
