中国电机工程学报Issue(9)：2135-2142,8.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.09.005
一种基于Beta分布的风电功率预测误差最小概率区间的模型和算法
A Model and Algorithm for Minimum Probability Interval of Wind Power Forecast Errors Based on Beta Distribution
摘要
Abstract
A normal distribution is usually used to model wind power forecast error, but it is not valid in some special cases. For solving this problem, an error interval estimation method of wind power forecasts based on Beta distribution was proposed in this paper. In this method, according tosystem reserve capacity requirements of safety and economy for power generation dispatching, an optimization model was proposed to calculate minimum probability interval of Beta probability density function (Beta PDF) with arbitrary probabilistic level. After the inverse function of Beta PDF was introduced, equality constrained optimization problem was simplified into an unconstrained optimization problem, and a smart algorithm with the characteristics of Beta PDF was presented. Simulation results show the correctness of the proposed model and algorithm, as well as the rationality of Beta PDF.关键词
风电功率/预测误差/Beta分布/最小概率区间Key words
wind power/forecast error/Beta distribution/minimum probability interval/optimization model and algorithm分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨宏,苑津莎,张铁峰..一种基于Beta分布的风电功率预测误差最小概率区间的模型和算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,(9):2135-2142,8.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2014MS101)。 Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2014MS101) （2014MS101）
