中国电机工程学报Issue(10)：2375-2382,8.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.10.002
短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型
Mixed Skew Distribution Model of Short-term Wind Power Prediction Error
摘要
Abstract
The wind power prediction uncertainty information should be referred to make decision due to low prediction precision. The error distributions of different sizes and value intervals present characteristics of biasness, heavy tail and multi-modality through analyzing an actual operated system’s prediction and operation data. Therefore, the mixed skew distribution was proposed to model short-term wind power prediction error distribution for depicting the features, and nonlinear fitting of the statistical probability density curve was used to estimate the model parameters. The case study of a regional wind power prediction system data manifests that wind power prediction error distribution characteristics can be described by the mixed skew distribution model more accurately compared with other distribution models with wider applications, higher fitting precision, and more flexibility in different situations.关键词
短期风电预测/误差分布/混合偏态分布/有偏性/多峰性/参数估计Key words
short-term wind power prediction/error distribution/mixed skew distribution/biasness/multimodality/parameter estimation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘燕华,李伟花,刘冲,张东英..短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,(10):2375-2382,8.基金项目
教育部中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(13MS06)。Project Supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (13MS06) （13MS06）
