中国国土资源经济Issue(3)：55-59,5.
内蒙古能源碳排放驱动因子研究及趋势预测
On the Research of Energy Carbon Emission Driving Factor and Trend Prediction in Inner Mongolia
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the structure and strength of energy carbon emission between 1995 and 2011 of Inner Mongolia. The alternative carbon emissions driving factor is selected by using partial correlation analysis;and the elasticity coefifcient of each drive factor is worked out based on STIRPAT model. This paper also predicts the future energy carbon emissions through selecting the ifrst ifve driving factor as forecasting reference sequence to build model-GM(1, N) according to the elastic coefifcient. The results shows that the total volume of imports and exports in the driving factors of carbon emissions, total investment in ifxed assets, the second industry output value, total GDP, per capita GDP, and the proportion of the second industry have been the constituents of Inner Mongolia’s positive driving factors of energy carbon emissions, and the driving force has ranged in order;while population and GDP energy consumption per unit has reverse driving effect on carbon emissions. Finally, this paper points out that carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia region keep increasing year by year. For example, between 1995 and 2002, it increased steadily;between 2003 and 2011, the growth accelerated signiifcantly. It is estimated that carbon emissions will reach 415.05 million ton by 2020.关键词
STIRPAT模型/碳排放驱动因子/弹性系数/GM(1,n)模型/内蒙古Key words
STIRPAT model/carbon emissions driving factor/elasticity coefifcient/GM (1, n) model/Inner Mongolia分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
童泉格,孙涵,成金华..内蒙古能源碳排放驱动因子研究及趋势预测[J].中国国土资源经济,2015,(3):55-59,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（71103164) （）
