农业展望Issue(10)：67-72,79,7.
“十三五”时期中国食糖消费市场展望
Forecasts of China's Sugar Consumption in the Thirteenth Five-year Plan Period
摘要
Abstract
During the 12th Five-year Plan period, China's sugar consumption has grown steadily and sugar gap between supply and demand has been narrowed. This paper forecasted China's sugar consumption in the thirteenth Five-year Plan period, by scenarios simulation on population and per capita consumption and four time series reg ression models. Compared with OECD-FAO prediction, China's sugar consumption is expected to exceed 15 million tons in 2016 and reach 17 million tons in 2020. We should take consumption as the goal and ensure production by various ways in order to stabilize the sugar market balance of supply and demand.关键词
食糖消费/产需缺口/时间序列模型/预测Key words
sugar consumption/gap between demand and supply/time series model/forecast引用本文复制引用
王沈南,刘晓雪..“十三五”时期中国食糖消费市场展望[J].农业展望,2014,(10):67-72,79,7.基金项目
农业部、财政部现代农业（甘蔗）产业技术体系建设专项资金；北京哲学社会科学首都流通业基地；2014价格波动创新团队 （）
