摘要
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the clinical value of serum estradiol level in predicting pregnancy outcome during early intrauterine pregnancy by applying receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve. Methods A total of 114 women with early monovular pregnancy( four to six weeks)admitted to Chen Xinghai Hospital Affiliated to Guangdong Medical College from January to May 2013 were selected and divided into normal pregnancy groups(n=52)and missed abortion groups(n=62)ac-cording to pregnancy outcome,and their serum estradiol levels were assayed and compared between the two groups,and then the statistics were analyzed by ROC curve. Results The serum level of estradiol in normal pregnancy group〔704(482)μg/L〕was significantly higher than that in missed abortion group〔192(250)μg/L〕,and the difference was statistically significant(U=442. 5,P=0. 000). The area under the ROC curve of serum estradiol in judging normal intrauterine pregnancy and missed abor-tion was 0. 863. The best threshold was 242 μg/L. In this case,the sensitivity,specificity,PPV,NPV,+LR and -LR were 0. 942,0. 645,0. 690,0. 930,2. 654 and 0. 089 respectively,and the omitting rate was 0. 058. Conclusion The level of ser-um estradiol can be used to predict pregnancy outcome during early intrauterine pregnancy. The best threshold is 242 μg/L. It has high negative predictive value and could be effectively used to predict missed abortion.关键词
ROC曲线/雌二醇/预测/妊娠初期/妊娠结局Key words
ROC curve/Estradiol/Forecasting/Pregnancy trimester,first/Pregnancy outcome分类
医药卫生
