中国全科医学Issue(19)：2228-2230,3.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9572.2014.19.014
多状态Markov模型在高血压中的应用研究
Application of Multimode Markov Model to Hypertension
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the application of multimode Markov model to the people with hyperten-sion. Methods 2 224 patients with hypertension were divided into four groups according to hypertension classification:low -risk,median-risk,high-risk and very-high-risk,who went to Zhujing community health center to establish their files and received health management there during January 1st,2011 and December 31st,2012. We used Markov model to simulate and analyzed the prognosis of the patients. Results After 2 years of cycle period,the probabilities of low-risk cases being converted into mid-risk and high-risk were 0. 096 and 0. 024 respectively;the probabilities of mid-risk cases being converted into low-risk and very-high-risk were 0. 006 and 0. 009 respectively;the probabilities high-risk cases being converted to low-risk and mid-risk and very-high-risk were 0. 011,0. 034,and 0. 070 respectively;the probability of very-high-risk being converted to mid-risk was 0. 031;the simulation predicted that in the following 30 years,the low-risk would drop by 0. 086 and very-high -risk would rise by 0. 059 and both differences were statistically significant(χ2 =92. 7,28. 5,P﹤0. 05). Conclusion Markov model can be used to predict the prognosis of the patients as a guidance of clinical work.关键词
Markov模型/高血压/预后Key words
Markov model/Hypertension/Prognosis分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
彭艳英,杨旦红,穆怀典,陈伟,张伟东..多状态Markov模型在高血压中的应用研究[J].中国全科医学,2014,(19):2228-2230,3.基金项目
上海市医学会健康管理分会与阿斯利康（中国）医学科研合作项目---健康管理课题研究项目 （）
