灾害学Issue(3)：115-119,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.03.021
基于CERES-Maize模型的吉林西部玉米干旱脆弱性曲线研究
Research on Vulnerability Curve of Drought Disaster of Maize on CERES-Maize Model in Western Jilin Province
摘要
Abstract
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses,depending on hazard,vulnerability,expo-sure,and emergency response and recovery capability.Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage,which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss estimation and disaster, but also is linked to the bridge of hazard and disaster.Information on meteorology,soil,land use,field manage-ment data and other information of the research area are collected.The drought disaster magnitude of seven-year (2001,2002,2004,2006-2009)are used to input into the CERES-Maize Model.The loss rate of the key indi-cators,which plays a major impact on the final yield at different growth stages under different disaster magnitude of drought,is calculated.At last the vulnerability curves of different growing stages are got.The results show that vul-nerability affects the final yield from high to low is tasseling stage,jointing stage,maturity stage,seeding stage. The results can be used to assess drought damage quickly,provide the basis for the regional agricultural drought disaster risk assessment and early warning,and also can provide the basis for the regional disaster prevention and management.关键词
玉米/CERES-Maize模型/不同生育期/脆弱性曲线/吉林西部Key words
maize/CERES-Maize Model/different growing stages/vulnerability curve/Western Jilin Prov-ince分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
董姝娜,庞泽源,张继权,佟志军,刘兴朋,孙仲益..基于CERES-Maize模型的吉林西部玉米干旱脆弱性曲线研究[J].灾害学,2014,(3):115-119,5.基金项目
吉林省自然科学基金项目（201215148）；“十二五”农村领域国家科技计划课题（2011BAD32B00-04）；全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划（2010CB951102）；国家自然科学基金项目 （）
