灾害学Issue(3)：124-130,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.03.023
应用联合极值分布评估热带气旋影响风险--以“海葵”对上海地区影响为例
Risk Assessment on Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Haikui on Shanghai by Applying Multivariate Compound Distribution Function
摘要
Abstract
TC catastrophe is a complex non-linear result of multiple factors.The risk of catastrophe is positive-ly related to the impact of typhoon under the premise of stable reaction capability.The possibility of serious impact from catastrophe increases when typhoon is stronger and probability is smaller.Multivariate compound distribution function are introduces to discuss TC joint risk probability in wind and rain.Based on the fact that climate stochas-tic events possess equivalence property over time and space,a joint probability risk assessment model is established by using TC Haikui as an example.The marginal distributions of the model are the maximum precipitation and the maximum wind speed,and the determining factor of risk is the exceedance probability of co-occurrence in wind and rain.The results suggest that the simultaneous of the exceedance probability in wind and rain describes TC risk lev-el accurately;especially in terms of the high risk area with sever catastrophe impact.This leads to a meaningful clue for the accuracy of extreme events risk assessment using meteorological data.关键词
热带气旋/联合极值分布/共现超越概率/风险评估/分区Key words
tropical cyclone/multivariate compound distribution/exceedance probability of co-occurrence e-vents/risk assessment/zoning分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
徐明,雷小途,杨秋珍..应用联合极值分布评估热带气旋影响风险--以“海葵”对上海地区影响为例[J].灾害学,2014,(3):124-130,7.基金项目
科技部行业专项“台风灾情资料整编技术研究” （）
