灾害学Issue(4)：52-56,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.04.011
基于模糊概率的阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境分区
Environment Zoning of Geological Hazards Development of Road Flood Based on Fuzzy Probability Method in Aba Area
摘要
Abstract
A fit environment zoning of geological hazards developing of road flood can provide theoretical ref-erences for the road flood prevention engineering.The road flood in Aba area,Sichuan province is studied.Ac-cording to the road flood causing principles,seven indexes are selected,such as historical geological hazards along the road,landforms,natures of rock and soil,average annual rainfall,population density,vegetation coverage and geological conditions,which are divided into four grades based on expert system,and then the comprehensive eval-uation model of environment zoning of geological hazards development is established after assessment.Each index is calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)and Expert Scoring Method,and then got the fuzzy weights combined fuzzy theory.According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of probability,the environment zoning of geological hazards development is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area,high easy-happening area and dangerous area.The result shows that Aba area have sufficient environmental conditions for road flood,and it is divided into low easy-happening area,medium easy-happening area and high easy-happening area ac-cording to the administrative districts,respectively accounts for 38.1%,39.6%,22.9%of the state area,this result has a positive significance for management and operation of the road flood in Aba area.关键词
道路工程/公路洪灾/孕灾环境分区/模糊概率模型/综合评价Key words
road engineering/road flood/zoning of disaster pregnant environment/fuzzy probability model/comprehensive evaluation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
唐红梅,廖学海,陈洪凯..基于模糊概率的阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].灾害学,2014,(4):52-56,5.基金项目
四川省交通厅科技项目（glkj201227）；2013年重庆高校创新团队建设计划资助项目 （）
