灾害学Issue(4)：209-214,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.04.038
全国及区域尺度上农业旱灾受灾率分级研究
Classification of Agricultural Drought Based on Crop Drought Disaster Rate in National and Regional Scales
摘要
Abstract
Drought,affecting the agricultural development,is one of the important natural disasters in our country.How to quantitatively evaluate degree of agro-drought and define its grade scientifically is of great impor-tance for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.Based on crop drought disaster rate (Ia )as grading index, and by using clustering methods and stepwise clustering method for classification,agricultural drought is proposed to be divided into 5 levels,respectively,no drought (D0),light drought (D1),moderate drought (D2),severe drought (D3),and extreme drought (D4).By discriminate analysis methods the classification results are validated to get the standard classification of agro-drought disaster category.The results show that national agro-drought clas-sification results are consistent by using average linkage cluster analysis method and centroid cluster method,on the D0 level,the rate of agricultural drought disaster (Ia )ranges from 0 to 10%,D1 is 10% to 15%,D2 is from 15% to 20%,D3 is from 20%to 25%and D4 is more than 25%;On regional scale,D0 is less than 6%,D1 is from 6% to 13%,D2 is 13%to 22%,D3 is 22%to 36%and D4 is more than 36%.Considering promotion and use of the national agricultural drought disaster standard and the future trend of the drought may increase,the scope of the national agricultural drought disaster rate is improved 2%~3%.From the point of actual recorded drought, the classification results of two scales are reasonable,and can well explain the existing agricultural drought classifi-cation phenomenon,which is good for the future agricultural drought emergency response researches and can pro-vide the reference for practical work.关键词
农业旱灾等级/旱灾受灾率/系统聚类法/逐步聚类法/判别分析Key words
classification of agricultural drought/crop droughtdisaster rate/hierarchical clustering method/stepwise clustering method/discrimination analysis method分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
杨方,李茂松,王春艳,崔三荣,程婉莹..全国及区域尺度上农业旱灾受灾率分级研究[J].灾害学,2014,(4):209-214,6.基金项目
“十二五”国家科技支撑项目 （）
