灾害学Issue(1)：228-235,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.01.042
基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例
Risk Assessment Model of Drought Disaster Based on Information Diffusion and Bootstrap:A Case Study in Anhui
摘要
Abstract
Drought risk management is a scientific way of drought mitigation and an important field in drought research.The risk quantitative assessment is the core of drought risk management.In order to reduce the error that caused by uncertainties and improve the reliability,a drought risk assessment model based on information diffusion and bootstrap is built,and the information diffusion and bootstrap are used to estimate the exceeding probabilities of drought loss and confidence interval of exceeding probabilities respectively.And then,the drought risk levels are presented by confidence interval.The model is used to assess drought risk of drought-prone areas in Anhui Prov-ince,and the calculations showed that the assessment results under 0.75 confidence level is reasonable and relia-ble,which would provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation planning.关键词
旱灾风险评估/区间估计/信息扩散法/自助法/安徽省Key words
risk assessment of drought disaster/interval estimation/information diffusion/bootstrap/Anhui Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
欧阳蔚,于艳青,金菊良,周玉良,郦建强,刘兰芳..基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例[J].灾害学,2015,(1):228-235,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（71273081；41171075；51109052）；水利部重大基建前期项目“全国干旱区划及旱灾风险评估研究”；水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（201001043）；中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题 （）
