灾害学Issue(2)：94-99,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.02.018
基于 IO 模型的多部门暴雨灾害间接经济损失评估--以北京市“7.21”特大暴雨为例
The Rainstorm Indirect Economic Loss Assessment of Multi Departments Based on IO Model---A Case Study on the Rainstorm on July, 21st in Beijing
摘要
Abstract
The development of social economy makes the connections among various departments of the na-tional economy become more and more diversified.Once a disaster happens, it will not only affect one certain de-partment but the related sectors and even the whole economy system, through the correlation effect among various departments.The single department loss conduction input-output model is tried to be improved, deducing other de-partments’ relevant losses by introducing multi affected sectors’ direct economic losses, and an empirical analysis is further done by using the rainstorm on July, 21st in Beijing as an example.The results show that, the heavy rain made a total of 8.8 billion production losses and 3.1 billion added value losses, and the second industry such as the high-cost processing and manufacturing industry is more vulnerable than the third industry when facing a rain-storm.However, part departments’ added value didn’ t fall but increased after the torrential rain, which, to some extent, verified the judgments by Okuyama, Schumpeter, etc, that is, disasters may do damage to the present so-cial and economic infrastructure, but it will promote regional economic growth in the long-run process of restoration and reconstruction.关键词
产业/关联损失/北京/“7.21”特大暴雨/投入产出/间接经济损失Key words
industry/the associated loss/Beijing/rainstorm on July, 21st/input-output/indirect economic loss分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王桂芝,李霞,陈纪波,吴先华..基于 IO 模型的多部门暴雨灾害间接经济损失评估--以北京市“7.21”特大暴雨为例[J].灾害学,2015,(2):94-99,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（71373131，71140014）；国家软科学计划项目（2011GXQ4B025）；国家公益性行业专项 （）
