灾害学Issue(3)：110-117,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.021
洪灾社会脆弱性熵权法评价及其时间序列分析--以2001-2012年湖北省荆州市为例
Flood Social Vulnerability Assessment Based on Entropy Method and Its Time Series Analysis:A Case of Jingzhou City from 2001 to 2012
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the evaluation index system of flood social vulnerability is established by analyzing the socio-economy of Jingzhou city from 2001 to 2012.First,the weight of each index is determined by the entropy method which gives weight objectively only based on the information.Then,a social vulnerability evaluation model is built.Afterward,the evaluation results of flooding,such as social sensitivity,social response capability to disas-ters and social vulnerability in Jingzhou,are obtained.Finally,two methods of time series analysis on the social vulnerability in Jingzhou are used based on the quadratic polynomial regression model (QPRM)and discrete fourier transform (DFT).The results show that:Three indicators,including the index of flood social sensitivity,response capability to disasters,and social vulnerability in Jingzhou,display high correlation with the growth mode of QPRM;According to the periodogram of the time series based on DFT,there’re four cycles with 3 years from 2001-2012 on flood social vulnerability;Based on the characters of sensitivity and vulnerability index,the period 2001-2012 is divided into four types:the period from 2001 to 2006 belongs to low sensitivity and low response capaci-ty;the year of 2006 belongs to low sensitivity and high response capacity;the year of 2007 belongs to high sensitiv-ity and low response capacity;and the period from 2009 to 2012 belongs to high sensitivity and high response ca-pacity.关键词
洪灾/社会脆弱性/熵权法/时间序列/傅里叶变换/荆州市Key words
flooding/social vulnerability/entropy method/time series/discrete fourier transform/Jing-zhou city分类
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李畅,冯滔,石倩,黄建武,阁承艳,吴江华,陈广平..洪灾社会脆弱性熵权法评价及其时间序列分析--以2001-2012年湖北省荆州市为例[J].灾害学,2015,(3):110-117,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（41101407）；湖北省自然科学基金（2014CFB377）；民政部减灾和应急工程重点实验室开放基金（LDRERE20120206）；国家级大学生创新创业项目 （）
